Continuing resolutions kept the government open but Obama has now agreed that the short term resolutions need to end and a budget needs to pass. Obama has agreed to cuts in the budget but hasn’t agreed with Congress on what actual cuts would take place.

cont. Partying in the White House

With all the problems in the world and high unemployment Obama is focused on the basketball brackets and his picks for the NCAA tournament. And a trip to Rio in Brazil.

With the earthquake and nuclear disaster in Japan and volatile situation in Libya where Qaddafi is gaining ground on the opposition, Obama continued to play golf over the weekend. Rush Limbaugh said with all the news happening he kept up on the news to prepare for his radio show rather than play golf as he often does. The President apparently didn’t find the same need to stay on top of the issues and make important decisions with European allies of France and the UK that are calling for action on Libya.

Obama spoke that the annual Gridiron Club dinner on a Saturday night joking with journalists. At the event journalists tell jokes and poke fun at politicians and other popular people.

Obama hosted a party on a Wednesday night to watch the Chicago Bulls basketball game. Most Wednesday nights at the Obama White House has featured lavish parties including guests like musicians and Hollywood stars as well has performances and shows.

Looking deeper into the numbers raises questions that the unemployment rate may not be falling due to job creation but rather by changes in the labor force participation rate. Most years there are more people in the labor force as the population grows. From 2001 to 2008 there were about 10 million more people in the labor force. If those added 10 million weren’t able to find jobs the unemployment rate would have shot up sharply but during those years we saw high levels of job creation keeping the unemployment rate at what is considered a “full” rate of only 5 percent.

Over the last two years the Obama Labor Department is reporting that about a million less people are in the labor force and that the participation rate as a percent is down by a large 1.5 percent (seasonally adjusted). The participation rate is reported to have fallen to a 64.2 percent which is the lowest rate since 1984. If the labor force was to remain the same the last two years unemployment rates would be higher at about 9.5 percent. When including the rising population in the participation rate over the last two years the unemployment rate would be near 10.5 percent.

There are many reasons there could be less people in the labor force the last two years not including any changes in the way the survey questions people. When people can’t find work many give up looking due to being discouraged that they can find work. These people are no longer counted in the labor force. Some may find a part time job to make some money until they find a full time job. While they have a part time job they would consider themselves unemployed because of lack of a full time job but they won’t be included in the unemployment rate. The last few years there has been a major disruption in the housing market with people losing their homes in foreclosure forcing people to move in with family or friends or even being homeless. Many of those losing their homes are unemployed but it’s difficult to find these displaced workers. It would be difficult to survey people by phone when they may no longer have the same phone numbers since they lost their home. These are people that are difficult to find effectively reducing the labor participation rate and the unemployment rates.

LNF Unemployment Rates
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Judge Vinson excoriated the Obama Administration for not following his ruling striking down the Obamacare law. Judge Vinson said it was not expected “that they would effectively ignore the order and declaratory judgment for two and one half weeks, continue to implement the act, and only then file a belated motion to clarify.”

If the Obama Administration doesn’t get a stay of Judge Vinson’s ruling the Obama Administration would have to stop implementing the healthcare law.

Obama stopped domestic oil production in the Gulf of Mexico after the oil spill effectively hindering major U.S. production for many months or years. Oil drilling platforms moved to foreign ocean drilling sites making it difficult to get production going again for many months at best. Obama is planning to end his moratorium on drilling in the Gulf even though a U.S. judge already ruled the Obama drilling ban illegal.

Reports of rebel forces in a battle with Qaddafi’s loyal troops over an oil port enforced the view that oil would be cut off to a slow trickle from Libya. The barrel of oil for West Texas Intermediate crude, a high grade oil, traded at $102.

Oil hit $100 dollars a barrel as worries about the Middle East continue to threaten oil supplies. Reports that Saudi Arabia sent tanks to support Bahrain allies as opposition protests; and fear of the unrest spreading there sent Saudi Arabia’s market down 7%. Unrest continues or grows in many Middle East countries. Higher oil prices make fuel and food more expensive and threatening to anger more people and riots spreading.

Inflation worries of the high oil price and the Middle East violence helped push gold to a record high of $1434 an ounce. Silver reached a 31 year high reaching $34.72. Concern about how inflation will effect the U.S. dollar has led to higher precious metal prices as a hedge or to speculate and profit from rising prices. Gold and silver are increasingly becoming the store of wealth where investors buy to protect their money while the U.S. dollar loses it’s safe haven status it had for decades.

The greatest worry now is Libya which produces 1.6 million barrels a day. Libya supplies Europe of high grade crude that effects the price more than lower grade crude would. Qaddafi and his son Saif al Islam, are increasingly isolated in the nations capital of Tripoli while opposition forces have taken a large part of the eastern part of the country and oil producing areas. Qaddafi’s supporters have attacked protesters and becoming armed. As Libya descends into a civil war, it’s oil supplies are likely to be sharply reduced and some of the oil infrastructure including oil wells and pipelines can be damaged. Oil supplies can very well be disrupted from Libya for many years.

Unrest has spread to other Middle East nations such as Bahrain threatening more oil supply disruptions. The biggest fear is if violence spreads to Saudi Arabia that produces near 9 million barrels of oil a day. With civil war in Libya and possible disruptions of oil supplies from more countries as well as the weak US dollar it is expected that gasoline prices to reach $4 by the end of the year or in the summer. Prices are currently averaging over $3.25 nationally but in some higher taxed states like Chicago and other cities prices are already near $4 a gallon.

At one point Pastor Warren asked then candidate Obama what is the definition of marriage.

OBAMA: I believe that marriage is the union between a man and a woman. Now, for me as a Christian — for me — for me as a

Christian, it is also a sacred union. God’s in the mix.

But suddenly, Obama decided, through the Department of Justice, that marriage was no longer a union between a man and a woman; that it’s a union between any two people instead. Barack Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder have decided that defending the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) is unconstitutional.

Suddenly, according to Obama, marriage is no longer a sacred union in which God is in the mix. He had said that he did not support same -sex marriage but when declaring DOMA unconstitutional, he definitely laid out the carpet to those homosexuals who want to marry. He said that marriage should be a state’s rights issue, but now he’s made it a federal one.

Obviously this thrilled gays and those in the Lesbians Gay Bisexual Transexual  (LGBT) community. Under the eradication of DOMA, gays will be able to receive Social Security survivor’s benefits as well as other tax benefits.

But while Obama has the gay community feeling estatic, there is grumbling coming from his base, especially from black ministers who have supported him right from the beginning.

A coalition of 34,000 black churches is blasting President Barack Obama’s decision to stop defending the federal law that bans recognition of gay marriage.

The Rev. Anthony Evans, who heads the National Black Church Initiative, says Obama “has violated the Christian faith” by failing to uphold Jesus’ teaching that marriage is between a man and a woman.

This is the base that pushed him into the White House, because they felt Obama was a practicing Christian. But now they are questioning Obama’s values and even questioning their own support for him in the future.

As a result, Evans says black churches must “reassess their extraordinary support for him.”